Medical cost inflation in Indonesia reached an estimated 13.6% in 2025, the highest rate in Asia, according to the Global Asia Insurance Partnership (GAIP). Mercer Marsh Benefits, meanwhile, put the country's projected medical trend rate at 19% for 2025, the year-on-year increase in claims costs per insured person. Asia-Pacific has recorded double-digit medical trend rates for six consecutive years, with analyst projecting a 12.5% average rate across the region in 2026.
Product exits signal unsustainable claims ratios - The gap between claims costs and premiums has already forced product exits. Around five to six non-life insurance companies stopped selling health products by early 2026, according to the Indonesian General Insurance Association (AAUI). Claims ratios had consistently exceeded 90% across parts of the market, a level that Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK) acknowledged was unsustainable.
The structural drivers are well established. Rising utilization, an ageing population, and the growing burden of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and hypertension are all contributing to cost escalation. The devaluation of the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) compounds pricing pressure, as most pharmaceutical raw materials and medical devices are sourced from abroad.
Anaalyst projects gross claims in the personal accident and health (PA&H) segment to grow from IDR8.6 trillion (US$535.9 million) in 2025 to IDR13.1 trillion (US$816.3 million) by 2029. That represents a compound annual growth rate of 10.9%.
Reinsurers carry share of deteriorating books - For reinsurers, the deteriorating claims environment creates direct exposure through quota share and excess-of-loss arrangements on health books. As cedants face pressure on guaranteed-premium products, where in-force policies cannot be repriced without regulatory constraints, reinsurers absorb a proportional share of the adverse experience.
Asia's health protection gap reached US$258 billion in premium-equivalent terms in 2024. That was up 21% from 2017, with chronic conditions and critical illnesses contributing almost equally to household financial stress.
OJK introduces co-payments and repricing limits - The OJK moved to address the imbalance in late 2025. Its POJK No. 36 of 2025, effective January 2026, introduced mandatory co-payments of at least 10% of each claim. The cap is IDR300,000 for outpatient care and IDR3 million for inpatient treatment.
The regulation also restricts health product repricing to once per year, with mandatory written notice to policyholders at least 30 days in advance. The OJK said the measures were intended to curb overutilization and prevent moral hazard.
Insurers have until December 2026 to adapt existing products to the new requirements. The framework also mandates medical advisory boards and stronger utilization review processes.
The requirements raise the operational bar for smaller carriers already under capital pressure.
Reinsurance role extends beyond risk transfer - Indonesia Re, the state-owned national reinsurer, has described the reinsurance function in this environment as extending beyond risk transfer. It cites claims experience analysis, disease trend monitoring, portfolio profitability assessment, and technical support for rate setting as areas where reinsurers add value.
The private health insurance market remains relatively small against a large state base. By October 2025, 283 million participants held coverage under BPJS Kesehatan, the national scheme, representing 99.3% of the population.
Private products largely serve as supplementary cover for access to private hospital facilities and specialist services. The private market was valued at US$1.63 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach US$2.54 billion by 2031, a 7.5% compound annual growth rate.
The regulatory and structural changes are expected to improve claims ratios over time but introduce near-term complexity for both insurers and reinsurers. Tighter co-payment rules may suppress utilisation. The underlying cost trends driven by chronic disease, medical technology, and currency exposure remain structural rather than cyclical.
The period ahead is likely to involve closer collaboration with cedants on product design, more granular pricing assumptions, and greater scrutiny of claims management governance. Those conditions typically favor reinsurers with strong local data infrastructure and cedant relationships over those writing the line from a distance.
