Is Your Manager Manipulating You

Manipulative, bad bosses use many different communication strategies, but the intent behind a lot of their tactics is the same: to get you to prioritize the company above your own best interest.

You may be receiving these messages from your boss, who is trying to get you to keep your head down and work longer and harder than is healthy for you. Don’t be fooled.

1. “Work is your family.”
Using the intimate language of family is one common message bad employers say to ensure commitment to their cause. If your boss is like your loving family, then you are less likely to speak up against any unethical business practices or bad decisions the company makes.

This is the personal message that Billy McFarland, co-founder of the infamous Fyre Festival, gave his employees when he tried to keep them working after his fraudulent practices were exposed, according to the Netflix documentary about his downfall.

As one of his employees said while recounting the conversation, “We’re not a family. You won’t even tell me anything! You’ve completely violated all the trust that we had in the product, in the company, in the brand and in you.”

In a good family, your membership and rights are not conditional, but in a business, they can be.

2. “I need you to be available at any time.”
Advances in technology mean that we can work from anywhere, but the downside of this is that some bosses think you can always be working. A 2017 study from the Academy of Management found that workers spent on average eight extra hours a week handling work emails after hours.

You have the right to spend free time away from the reach of your employer. France has formalized this belief into legislation. Under their “right to disconnect” law, companies with more than 50 employees have to ensure hours when staff can ignore business emails.

Being on call 24/7 is not good for your health. One study of 315 employees found that those who had to use technology to work at home around nighttime had worse sleep quantity, quality and consistency.

And working longer does not even produce better work for companies. If you find yourself working longer than 50 hours a week to meet the demands of your boss, this overtime is probably not going to produce better work. In his five-year survey of 5,000 managers and employees, management professor Morten Hansen found that performance starts to plateau at 50 hours and sharply falls after 65 hours a week.

3. “Everything is fine.”
One of the worst bosses is the boss who is not there. They may be physically present, but they are psychologically absent from their duties as a leader. They offer vague praise, but no tangible feedback for you to learn from. They say the company is doing fine, even when layoffs, “pivots” and budgets in the red say the opposite.

The researchers behind one 2010 study said a laissez-faire leader “may avoid decision making, show little concern for goal attainment and seldom involve themselves with their subordinates, even when this is necessary.” In their analysis, it was the most common type of incompetent leadership employees experience.

This hands-off leadership becomes manipulative when you need feedback and guidance about your future at the company. Instead, you’re given the unsatisfying answer of “everything is fine” to keep you working even though you have questions that need to be addressed.

4. “That’s not my problem.”
“That’s not my problem” is a demoralizing phrase to hear because it tells you that your boss does not care about helping you, said Randy Conley, a vice president of client services and trust practice leader at the Ken Blanchard Companies.

“This behavior silences the employee and discourages them from bringing further problems or issues to the boss’ attention, which results in a drag in performance and efficiency because problems chronically remain unsolved,” he said. “It also discourages employees from engaging in whistleblower behavior, which opens the door to unethical and illegal behavior in the organization.”

5. “This is how we’ve always done it.”
This language comes from a boss who only enforces the rules, and does not have the power or desire to shape them. When your boss says this, they are signaling they are going to mindlessly follow the status quo.

Thinking that the old way of doing things is the right way to keep doing things is a trap that even well-intentioned leaders make when assuming new roles. In the onboarding book The First 90 Days by Michael Watkins, which aims to help leaders in career transitions, Watkins said that these bosses “fail to see that success in the new role requires you to stop doing some things and to embrace new competencies.”

When your boss tells you that this is how things usually go, they are signaling that they are not open to new ideas and that they do not want you to offer a challenging response. Conley said that leaders “often resort to this response as a way to subtly manipulate employees to go with the flow and not make waves.”

6. “Don’t you agree?”
“Don’t you agree?” is a phrase that leaders can tack on to the end of a remark to seemingly invite discussion, while actually ensuring discussion does not happen.

“By virtue of their position and title, leaders have more power in the boss/employee relationship,” Conley said. “Saying ‘Don’t you agree?’ automatically puts the employee in an uncomfortable position of either choosing to agree with the boss even if they don’t, or confronting the boss in disagreement.”

It is possible for a boss to request feedback without signaling personal alliances. Conley suggests that a nonmanipulative way to do it is to ask, “What do you think?”

“That opens the door to the employee sharing their true thoughts and feelings in a safe and open environment,” Conley said.

The long-term impact of a manipulative boss
A manipulative boss can get you to adopt their mindset and stay at a bad job far longer than you should.

To get away from your boss’ influence, you can raise the issue to human resources, you can offset their bad behavior by remembering your values, or you can do what half of 7,272 Americans did in a Gallup study to escape their manager: They quit.

Why - I Quit My Job

Quitting a job is the final act that severs the relationship between you and your employer. When things turn sour, it’s the act of defiance that tells an employer, “You don’t control me.”

Stories of the breaking points that drove readers to quit their jobs, many answered the call. A few themes emerged: People left jobs over toxic bosses, co-workers, and workplace environments, plus the mental and physical toll of this toxicity. They also left jobs they loved over low salaries and the discovery that a co-worker earned more than they did. A few even left over physical endangerment.

A thread of frustration ran through them all. Years after the events occurred, in many cases, these workers could recall their breaking point and the emotions associated with it in detail. Sound familiar?

“It felt like an out of body experience: Did I just say that?”

When the floor plan is open, my job is closed - I quit three jobs as soon as they announced they were switching to an open floor plan. Open floor plans are miserable for technical people and jobs that need to focus. I cannot focus and be productive with people talking and laughing and telling stories. Headphones don’t work. Then there is the sickness factor. All the people with kids cause me to get sick every year. I am convinced this misguided practice is only implemented by management that does not trust or care about their employees (or has control issues) ... either way, not good. When the floor plan is open, my job is closed.

I was tired of the tears, knots in my stomach and dread - It was a toxic environment in every sense of the word. I was dealing with chemical fumes in a poorly ventilated warehouse [and] the owner had an anger problem and didn’t trust his managers to do their jobs.

I was tired of the tears, knots in my stomach and dread going to work every morning. So, one day I prayed to my angels for guidance. The largest, most vibrant double rainbow I had ever seen formed across the sky. People were stopping in the street to take pictures. To me, rainbows always meant hope and new beginnings. I had my sign.

The next day I went into work. The owner was in full rage mode; my head was starting to pound and my stomach was tensing up. A strong thunderstorm started, with flashes of light and loud crashes of thunder, occasionally overriding the owner’s constant tirade. A particularly loud blast of thunder made me bolt straight out of my seat. I stood up and loudly stated, “I can’t take it anymore ― I quit!” It felt like an out of body experience: Did I just say that? I ran full-throttle through a long warehouse, through four doors, through the gate and to my car in the pouring rain. I was shaking as I turned on my car and peeled out of the parking lot. I never quit a job in my life ― and with such flair! But it was the best decision I’d ever made. I learned my value that day and choose to be in a work environment that emanates peace, calm and respect!

Each week, they lied to me about relief coming - I did so well working for a restaurant chain that they sent me from my home store to help rebuild a store that was 130 miles [away]. The director of operations told me it was to be two to three weeks until a replacement manager was to come take over for me and I could return to my home store. But each week, they lied to me about relief coming. It was one excuse after another. I was asked just before leaving that store to go to another that was 45 minutes from my house. I expressed hesitation, but the ops directors told me it was optional and I could return to my home store at any time.

I told the ops director I wanted to return to my home store after two months, and was told I no longer had a place at my home store. I attempted to reach out to corporate to express my concerns; the person at corporate just forwarded my email to said ops director, and as a result I received an email warning me that going to corporate would “put a stigma on me” and would “affect my ability to grow with the company.”

One day I could not get staff to do what they needed to do to take care of our guests. It was that point where I felt I was not where I wanted to be. Working 12 hours a day. Commuting. Having an operation that didn’t work together to achieve a common goal. And the overall disinterest from corporate to live up to their commitment to my home store. I had to leave. I love my work but I feel like I was being used.

“My friend showed himself to be a completely different person in power.”

I’m simply not compatible with abusive bosses or co-workers - I abruptly quit without giving notice. The first red flag was when the company required participation in really uncomfortable social activities during work hours. These included: boozing during lunch (I don’t drink, and they wanted to know if I was an alcoholic), games of “Cards Against Humanity” (I have C-PTSD from severe childhood trauma so this is pretty much the worst game I could possibly play), and dressing up for Halloween where a co-worker brought a gun as part of his costume (I never asked if it was fake, but it did look heavy and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that it was real).

The second red flag was the treatment of an older male co-worker. The boss had a relative at the company who would Photoshop this co-worker in mildly homoerotic images and share them companywide. The victim seemed to find it funny, but it’s very possible he was just trying to make the best of an ugly situation. Then, one day, the boss had this male co-worker in the conference room and I just heard this insane screaming laced with profanities, directed at my co-worker. Everyone could hear it. I knew there was nothing my co-worker could have possibly done to warrant such abuse. It was sickening.

The final red flag came when I was offered a promotion to a manager position. Part of me fantasized about staying on and slowly changing this toxic work environment from within. I really liked some of my co-workers. I also liked the work a lot, and I was good at it. But I happened to see the salaries of the people (all men) who would be working under me. The offer worked out to about $5 lower per hour than the lowest-paid male worker who would be under my supervision. When I brought this up with the boss, he said he wasn’t sure it was possible to give me more money. It was Friday. I went home and thought about it. On Monday, I didn’t go in to work. I just sent in an email saying I quit.

I learned an important lesson: I’m simply not compatible with abusive bosses or co-workers. Some people are able to bite their tongues, bury their heads in the sand, and get on with it. To me, that’s a privilege I can’t afford. There’s too much at stake for me with regards to my mental health.

They asked me to work without proper safety precautions - The foreman asked me to change a motor starter on a plating tank agitator. The tank had several agitators, all wired into the same electrical disconnect. Electrical code requires a separate disconnect for each motor. I was about to turn off the disconnect when the foreman told me I would have to work it “hot” because they would lose the entire batch in the tank if the agitators were turned off.

So, I asked him for a pair of voltage rated rubber gloves, and he told me they didn’t have any. The motor starters were adjacent to the tank, and there were puddles of water on the floor. I made up my mind on the spot to quit, but I wanted to show him I was just as crazy as he was, so I changed the starter “hot” without turning off the power. Then I picked up my tools, told him I quit, and walked out.

Looking back with 40 years’ experience, I realize how crazy and stupid I was back then. Today, I would have stood my ground, and refused to do something as dangerous as work on a live 480-volt circuit.

I still can’t believe how much he changed after he moved from co-worker to boss - I quit my job as a public defender back in 2012. My boss sat across from me at his desk. He leaned back in his chair and laughed at me as he tucked his hands behind his head and stuck his elbows out to the sides. “The reason I don’t have to consider your promotion is because I’ve got you. You love your clients too much to quit this job. You’re a true believer and you only want to be a public defender. So I’ve got you.” He used those really shitty air quotes and rolled his eyes when he said “true believer,” and that enraged me.

I sat there with a weird smile on my face, but in my head I screamed “I QUIT. RIGHT. NOW.” Then I went right back to my office and started to plan out how to open my own criminal defense firm.

Before he was my boss, he was my co-worker for a couple years. I had always been vocal about my love of the job, but hadn’t pushed hard for my old boss to move me up the pay scale. Once my new boss took over, I was so excited to have a friend at the top who could get my promotion finished. Within a month of him taking over, my friend showed himself to be a completely different person in power. Co-workers were quitting without notice and office morale was abysmal. I will never regret quitting, but his toxic management pushed me to quit the only job I’ve ever truly loved. He’s since been fired for a ton of other terrible tyrannical behavior, but I still can’t believe how much he changed after he moved from co-worker to boss.

I spent more time covering my ass and documenting everything than actually doing real work - My boss was a bully asswipe jerk and I was his designated chew toy! I actually was one of the people that interviewed and hired the guy as a co-worker. Years later he was promoted to supervisor. I had been with the [department] for 16 years when I finally gave up. I had four file boxes full of documentation of various incidents of harassment and inappropriate behavior. I had an attorney ready to take my case. After filing several grievances to try and stop the bullying/harassment without any change taking place I knew for my health and for my family and for my quality of life it was time to bail. Once I saved up what I hoped was enough money to get me to retirement I resigned my position. I just could not deal with the daily harassment anymore.

“His response was, 'What gun?'”

The boss was eventually reassigned or “took” another job where he did not supervise anyone; it was assumed all my grievances forced management to move him to the new job, but who knows! The new boss was a great guy, but the higher-ups had not supported me through all the attacks and I did not trust them anymore or want to work for them anymore. It got to the point where I spent more time covering my ass and documenting everything than actually doing real work.

The moment my manager said, “What gun?” I knew I was quitting - The most unique breaking point in quitting a job was a manager putting my life in danger. I was a bartender and cook at a nice bar. One evening after closing my manager was pulling the till, his back to the bar. Tucked into the small of his back was a revolver. I asked him what kind of gun he was packing and why.

His response was, “What gun?” I responded, “The gun tucked into your pants.” His return response: “What gun?” My response: “I quit.” Manager: “Why?” Me: “Because if there is a gun on the premises, every employee here should know where it is at all times, and be comfortable with that. Preferably, it should be locked in a safe. [You] brandishing a weapon that you deny even exists puts everyone in here in danger. A simple robbery could [happen] very easily, and because of your cavalier attitude, most probably would become a fatal shootout. If you think otherwise, you’re an idiot. I’m not going to get killed over someone else’s chump change. Send me my last check, I’m out of here.”

I’ve never been more crystal clear about quitting a job in my life, or come to the decision so quickly. The moment my manager said, “What gun?” I knew I was quitting. I have no fear of guns, I’ve owned them since I was 17. I respect them and their lethal capabilities. I am afraid of macho dimwits with power issues ― i.e. that manager ― carrying them. I had no idea if he had training, or if it was even legal. It didn’t matter, his lack of respect for the weapon and his employees was the last straw.

Never mind tenure, I thought, I want joy - I had been an academic for 25 years, and in late 2018, I realized that my deep love for my discipline was being more than outstripped by a very difficult department chair and an equally difficult (though very different) dean. The chair was narcissistic, unhappy, and mean. She didn’t want to be chair [and] manifested her dislike of the position by complaining constantly about every faculty member in the department. We were all, suddenly, bad people. Submitting a grant proposal? You were causing her work and trouble. Want to apply for a new hire to improve the teaching in your specific subfield? You were creating difficult negotiations for her, taking away from her home life, and creating trouble when there was none with your stupid “vision.” God forbid that you might host an international conference featuring some of the best people in your field of study ― and that’s what I did.

I realized things were not going to get better: My chair would be chair for another three years, which would stall my research and stifle my teaching; my dean would be dean for what seemed like perpetuity, which would mostly just make me seethe; [there was a death in my family], and I just resolutely and certainly knew that I wanted my life to be joyful and engaging, rather than oppressive and a constant struggle. Never mind tenure, I thought, I want joy.

“Am I bothered because the new employee may have asked for more, or that I am willing to accept so little?”

A new couch was worth more to them than the value I was bringing - It was the second time that I asked for a small raise, and they said there was nothing they could do for me ― despite the fact we had new expensive furniture from Crate & Barrel ordered to the office every couple of days.

It was crushing to hear because I had waited half a year to ask again, and during that time, I started doing three times the work and took on tasks like coding, design and event logistics on top of my marketing job. People would always praise me on what a valuable asset I was, but it just didn’t add up by the way they compensated me. I knew I had to go when it felt like a new couch was worth more than the value I was bringing to the company.

For so long, I questioned my self-worth and it drove me to the point that I felt incompetent, especially when everyone else was making six figures and I was barely making half that. At first, I thought it was because of my lack of skills. But when I upskilled and got really good at my job, I realized that maybe the fault wasn’t mine. I knew that I had to cut all the ties and go somewhere that would reflect my own worth.

I saw what they were paying a colleague - I’m learning how to enter a new employee into the payroll system, which also requires entering the hourly rate. I sit down beside the accounting manager so I can see her computer screen. Before we begin, she says, “I just want to warn you. When you set up a new employee, you may see financial information that bothers you.” I don’t think anything of it. Then, I look back at the computer screen and see the huge disparity between what the new employee makes and what I make!

I suddenly feel as if all oxygen is leaving my body. I take a deep breath, secretly gather my composure and mentally calculate a $27 difference in our hourly wage. For the remainder of my shift, I am mentally worthless. I simply cannot concentrate on work, nor do I want to! Who would have authorized this? How is this fair? I come in early, stay late, work on many weekends and do my absolute best to honor my work so I can sleep well at night. I work from a place of integrity and service, and the accounting manager notices and appreciates it. It’s not all about money, but then again, it is about the money. Am I bothered because the new employee may have asked for more, or that I am willing to accept so little? The [organization] is not responsible for taking care of me. But how does it decide for whom it will be a financial advocate? I am perplexed as to how the value of what each employee contributes is determined. I can’t help wonder why I accept so little for myself, why I try to keep myself small by not going for what I really want.

I found myself feeling like the biggest hypocrite when I would gloriously tell my children things like, “You can do anything you want to do. Just get a good education, work hard and everything will be fine. All you have to do is believe in yourself.” I wasn’t even taking my own advice!

One week later I submit my letter of resignation to the accounting department.

Taiwan Traditional Life Insurance - Slides

Sales of traditional life insurance policies — while continuing to outperform those of investment-linked products — have shown signs of decelerated growth after customers turned conservative due to major insurers lowering their declared interest rates, a Life Insurance Association report showed.

First-year premiums generated by traditional life insurance policies were NT$48.5 billion (US$1.56 billion) last month, up 9.1 percent from a year earlier, while those of investment-linked products dipped 14.7 percent year-on-year to NT$15.60 billion, the report said.

Traditional life products continued to make up the majority of products sold with a market share of 75 percent, with investors indifferent to investment-linked policies that offered lower returns amid volatility in global financial markets and surprise interest rate cuts, the report said.

Growth in sales of traditional life policies decelerated from 35.4 percent in the first quarter to 8.1 percent between April and last month as insurance companies began cutting the declared rates of their products, it said.

Higher declared rates mean higher bonuses for policyholders, but leave insurance companies vulnerable to foreign-exchange risks, as most of their investments are held overseas.

At the outset, the cuts did not discourage investors from buying the products as they still provided better returns than other policies and bank deposits, the report said.

However, with more major insurers continuing to lower their rates, investors became more conservative, which affected sales, it said.

As interest-rate-sensitive policies have dominated the life insurance market, any headwinds would be a drag on the whole industry, the report said.

Six major life insurance firms — Nan Shan Life Insurance Co (南山人壽), Cathay Life Insurance Co (國泰人壽), Shin Kong Life Insurance Co (新光人壽), China Life Insurance Co (中國人壽), Fubon Life Insurance Co (富邦人壽) and Transglobe Life Insurance Co (全球人壽) — have continued to trim their declared rates, the report said.

In the first eight months, first-year premiums generated by traditional life insurance polices grew 10.3 percent to NT$555.15 billion, while those of investment-linked policies fell 21.4 percent to NT$123.51 billion, the report said.

Total first-year premiums generated by all insurance policies fell 2.4 percent year-on-year, it said.

As insurers have continued to trim declared rates, sales of traditional life products might not improve in short term, the report said.

100,000 Kidney Dialysis Patients

The number of dialysis patients is increasing each year and expected to touch a whopping 100,000 patients by 2040. According to National Kidney Foundation (NKF), presently there are 50,000 dialysis patients nationwide.

“Each year the numbers are increasing with 7,000 new patients, ” the NKF said in a statement.

To address these issues, NKF held an awareness forum titled “Improving Quality of Your Life” in Muar. According to the statement, these forums work as an information and experience sharing platform for end-stage renal failure (ESRF) management. Topics covered ranged from managing and treating kidney disease, to guidance on adhering to healthy habits physically and mentally.

NKF board of directors member Dr Lee Wan Tin’s speech at the forum touched on the importance of having such events.

“NKF established the Patient Forum to provide patients and their caregivers with information and advice that they need in one platform, ” he said.

He added that they hoped to safeguard the physical, emotional and psychological well-being of the patients through these forums.

The forum featured five nephrologists and a dietician who shared vital information about kidney disease as well as improving the patients’ knowledge of managing the disease with a healthy lifestyle and medical treatment.

One of the speakers, Dr Nor Fadhlina Zakaria said the rate of kidney donation in the country was still low as only 1.3% of the country’s population of 30 million are registered as donors.

NKF, a non-profit charitable organisation, currently has over 1,700 dialysis patients who are receiving subsidised treatments spread out at over 28 dialysis centres nationwide.

Indonesia Blue Bird Fights Back

In 2015, the shares of Indonesia’s largest cab company were soaring, while its revenue reached a record high. Then came Uber, followed by Grab and Gojek, South-East Asia’s answer to the revolutionary ride-hailing app.

Competition from the technology titans wiped out US$1.7bil (RM7bil), or almost 80%, of PT Blue Bird’s market value from a peak. Revenue plunged 23% in three years and the latest quarterly earnings fell to a record low. But rather than give up, the 54-year-old cab operator is now seeking to turn the tide. Leading the effort is Noni Purnomo, who succeeded her father in May as president.

Four months into her new job at the Jakarta-based company, Purnomo is banking on technology to transform the flagging business her late grandmother started in 1965. Her plans include focusing on electric vehicles made by Tesla Inc and BYD Co to cut fleet ownership costs and improve efficiency using data.

"We decided to take a huge leap,” Purnomo, 47, said at her office in Jakarta last week. "With this leap, we hope we can address our shortcomings” and catch up with rivals.

While sustainability is her immediate priority, Purnomo’s goal eventually is to beat the ride-hailing giants that have upended what was once an industry renowned for its steady revenue and dominated by small owners and families like Purnomo’s. She’s up against Singapore-based Grab, the regional giant that bought Uber Technologies Inc’s South-East Asian operations last year.

Purnomo’s toughest challenge yet may be convincing investors that her company is here to stay and thrive. Blue Bird’s shares traded at 2,590 rupiah (75 sen) in Jakarta . They reached an all-time high of 12,500 rupiah (RM3.70) in January 2015, months after Blue Bird raised a modest US$200mil (RM832mil) from an initial public offering.

Purnomo has already added about two dozen EVs to Blue Bird’s almost 30,000-strong fleet of cabs that operate in the cities of Java, Sumatra, Bali, Lombok and Batam. Eventually, the plan is to have 2,000 of the zero-emission taxis from Tesla and Chinese maker BYD, she said.

EVs may give her company an edge as initial data have shown encouraging signs, she said. The vehicles cost 40% less to operate than fossil fuel-powered cars, and generate 30% more revenue, according to her.

Besides, her rivals can’t replicate this model easily, Purnomo said. Their asset-light model would require drivers to bear the financing costs of an expensive EV, a risky proposition for most individuals, she said. A representative for Grab didn’t respond to request for comments.

"We have a different business model and the company can take the risk instead of the individual,” she said.

Charging stations - The lack of charging infrastructure in the South-East Asian country could pose a hurdle. Right now, Blue Bird has facilities at its main office in Jakarta, while there’s one available at the city’s airport. President Joko Widodo‘s government is trying to ramp up charging stations in malls and other public places to help boost sales of EVs.

Blue Bird will also invest in the internet of things – an emerging technology that links machines and gadgets and likely to get a boost with the roll out of 5G wireless networks. IoT will help Blue Bird collect data and improve operational efficiency and help implement dynamic pricing, a variable fare model popular with the likes of Uber, Lyft Inc and Grab.

Purnomo said the company now has the technical capability to fight back and the financial resources to challenge them, without elaborating on how she plans to raise capital. On the other hand, Grab has money to burn. Valued at US$14bil (RM58bil), it is planning to raise more than US$4.5bil (RM18.7bil) in its latest funding round.

"Gojek and Grab’s low fares have caused a major churn for these taxi companies,” said Kenny Liew, an analyst at Fitch Solutions. "The taxi companies need to look at new business models, even partnerships with ride-hailing players, to stay relevant.”

Rival ties - Blue Bird already has an alliance with Gojek, operated by PT Aplikasi Karya Anak Bangsa, that allows its fleet to be available on the Gojek app. While it opens up the customer base, it also has the disadvantage of lower margins, Liew said. Gojek offers both motorcycle and cab rides.

A representative for Gojek said the company has also started a pilot project for electric motorcycles and cars in Indonesia. If the vehicles can save costs, that will help drivers, she said in an email.

Purnomo started working at Blue Bird in the mid-1990s. Groomed by her father for a key role in the family business, the engineering graduate held positions in maintenance, customer service and sales before taking a break to finish her master’s in business administration at the University of San Francisco.

Competition brought about by ride-hailing companies in the traditional taxi business is "nearing equilibrium,” Purnomo said, adding some customers and even drivers who previously left Blue Bird to try rivals have returned.

While investors have pummeled Blue Bird’s shares, analysts have been more optimistic. All six tracked by Bloomberg recommend buying it.

"The worst appears to be behind them,” said Richard Suherman, an analyst at PT Sinarmas Sekuritas. "Their transformation, including their plan to build up a better technology platform and dynamic pricing, should help their competitiveness and profitability.”

Start-up - Timing Is Critical

Entrepreneurship is on the rise. Millennials are helping to fuel startups and it looks like Gen Z will only continue the trend. According to a recent Nielsen study, 54% of Gen Z’s claim their aspiration is to create a company. The number of self-employed people in the U.S. has grown by nearly 150,000 since 2014 to 8,751,000. This number is up from 8,602,000 at the end of 2016. That data, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is interesting yet unfortunately many of these future entrepreneurs will fail. Over 80% of new businesses fail in the first 5 years, and 96% fail within their first 10 years according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. So, how do you hedge your bet?

According to Bill Gross, founder of Idealab, it's not the idea, plan, business model, team, or surprisingly, even the money that's the most significant factor in a startup's success. It's all in the timing. Gross studied over 200 companies and discovered that a startup's timing accounted for 42 percent of the difference between success and failure. In his TEDx talk, Gross uses one of Idealab's startups as an example. Z.com was an online entertainment company. They raised enough money, had a great business model, and even signed well-known Hollywood talent to join the company. So, what went wrong?

The problem for Z.com was that broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000. If you are over the age of 40, do you remember trying to watch video content online back then? It was miserable. You had to figure out how to put codecs (video compression software) in your web browser. And that was just the beginning for a whole host of problems. These challenges forced the company out of business in 2003. A mere two years later, YouTube launched a similar platform that would quickly grow into the insanely popular video-sharing website it is today. The difference? The codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash and broadband penetration quickly crossed 50 percent in America.

So, Gross wanted to better understand what factors or factor accounts the most for a company’s success or failure?  He took a very quantitative approach to analyze companies he has worked with and funded, and others that he hadn't. His team reviewed over 100 Idealab companies and over 100 non Idealab companies. Companies like Flooz, YouTube, Uber, Shopify, Pets.com, Instagram, AirBNB, Kozmo, LinkedIn, Uber, Friendster and more.

He looked at a five key factors that he deemed important to get to the one factor that accounts for a startups success. Here is what his research found:

Startup Funding. Sometimes companies receive a great deal of funding - maybe this could be the factor for success? That's not the case. Well funded companies only accounted for a mere 14% success ratio.

Business Model. It's always important to know if the company has a clear path to generate revenues. But Bill has noted that you can start out without a business model, and create one later. He pointed out that YouTube didn't have a business model, neither did Yahoo!. This attribute accounted for a 24% success ratio.

Startup Idea. Everybody, even Bill loves big ideas. He even named his venture/incubator company Idealab because he loved the thrill of coming up with a great idea. But ideas only accounted for a 28% success ratio among the companies that were reviewed.

Startup Team. Most experienced venture capitalists know that the customer is the true reality of a startups potential. During Bill’s TEDx talk, he quotes the boxer Mike Tyson who once said "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." If a good team can adapt to the true reality of a demanding customer, perhaps the team is the truest indicator of success for a start up? But amazingly, the startup team fell short as well accounting for only a 32% success ratio.

Market Timing. Accounting for whopping 42% of the difference between success and failure, timing is the winner. Bill noted that many investors initially passed on AirBNB. Most venture capitalists were probably thinking that it was odd for a person to rent out a room in their home to a stranger. Aside from a great business model, and a great team, AirBNB had timing on its side. Launched during the recession when people needed extra cash. Uber also benefited from launching during the recession as well as people (drivers) were looking to pick up some extra money to supplement their income.

If you look at the recent rise, in the past few years, of plant based foods like Silk, Beyond Meat and others, it would not have been possible for them to be successful 10-15 years ago. What has changed? People have changed with young Millennials and Gen Z determining that plant based foods are not only healthier, they are better for the planet.

If you are looking to create a startup, before you consider anything else, ask yourself if it’s the right timing for your new product or service. If you believe it is, and you have done the customer research, then go ahead and build out a team.

Thomas Cook Collapsed

Thomas Cook, the world’s oldest travel firm, collapsed today, stranding hundreds of thousands of holidaymakers around the globe and sparking the largest peacetime repatriation effort in British history.

The UK’s Civil Aviation Authority said Thomas Cook had now ceased trading and the regulator would work with the government to bring the more than 150,000 British customers home over the next two weeks.

“Due to the significant scale of the situation, some disruption is inevitable, but the Civil Aviation Authority will endeavour to get people home as close as possible to their planned dates,” it said in a statement in the early hours of Monday.

“Thomas Cook has ceased trading so all Thomas Cook flights are now cancelled,” it said.

The firm runs hotels, resorts and airlines for 19 million people a year in 16 countries. It currently has 600,000 people abroad, forcing governments and insurance companies to coordinate a huge rescue operation.

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Pictures posted on social media showed Thomas Cook planes being diverted away from the normal stands, and being deserted as soon as they had landed. 

The company, founded in 1841, has been fighting for its survival after its lenders threatened to pull the plug on a rescue deal that has been months in the making.

Hurt by high levels of debt, online competition and geopolitical uncertainty, Thomas Cook needs to find another £200 million (RM1.04 billion) on top of a £900 million package it had already agreed, to see it through the winter months when it needs to pay hotels for their summer services.

At the meeting today the company was asking its lenders to restructure or lower their demands. It has also asked credit card companies to release £50 million that they hold as collateral against the company’s bookings.

The company’s largest shareholder, China’s Fosun, was due to take a central role in the restructuring.